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Spatial Simulations of Hong Kong's Marine Ecosystem: Ecological and Economic Forecasting of Marine Protected Areas With Human-Made Reefs

Editors

Publication

Fisheries Centre Research Reports, Vol. 10 No. 3 Pages: 170pp
2002 | PDF

Edited by Pitcher, T., Buchary, E. and Trujillo, P.

ABSTRACT

The Hong Kong Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Department (AFCD) has initiated a $HK100 million Artificial Reef and Fishery Protected Area (AR/FPA) programme (Figure 1.1). The proposal builds on earlier initiatives to establish ARs in Hoi Ha Wan and Yat Chau Tong Marine Parks. The objective is to rebuild fish stocks by compensating for habitat loss and reducing fishing pressure. An extensive consultation process conducted by ERM-HK Ltd., under contract to AFCD, identified five priority deployment areas. The University of British Columbia Fisheries Centre (UBC-FC) advised on Phase I consultations with fishing communities and conducted extensive ecosystem (ECOPATH and ECOSIM) and bio-economic modelling to determine the effectiveness of different sizes of FPAs around AR complexes. The earlier results indicated that a potential for substantial gains in the value of Hong Kong fisheries resources. This study is the first application of spatial (ECOSPACE) modelling to Hong Kong and adjacent PRC inshore waters and evaluates the effectiveness of different FPA configurations in the Tap Mun/Tolo Harbour and Outer Port Shelter FPAs shown below. The overall modelling also evaluates the benefits of recent AR/FPA initiatives in banning trawling at FPAs, Marine Parks and at the newly established Marine Exclusion Zone at Chek Lap Kok. Lastly, the study assesses the implication of a 2-month trawl moratorium in adjacent PRC inshore waters.

STUDY OBJECTIVES

Quantify the contribution of ARs plus Fisheries Protection Areas (FPAs) to Hong Kong fisheries resources; and
Quantify the benefits of banning trawling in recently-established ARs/MPAs initiatives and more extensively throughout Hong Kong and adjacent PRC inshore waters.

Directors Foreword T.J. Pitcher	3
1. Introduction, Background and Study Objectives (T. J. Pitcher, E.A. Buchary, U.R. Sumaila and N. Haggan)	4
2. New ECOPATH Models of the Hong Kong Marine Ecosystem (E.A. Buchary, T.J. Pitcher, W.L. Cheung and T. Hutton)	6
2.1 Defining and parameterizing the model	6
2.2 Landing and discard database applied	7
2.3 Results	9
2.4 Revised ECOPATH model the system after 5 years closure	14
3. Revision of the Hong Kong Catch Estimates (T.J. Pitcher)	17
3.1 Methods applied in revising the catch estimates	17
3.2 Results	18
4. Temporal Simulation using ECOSIM (E.A. Buchary and T.J. Pitcher)	19
4.1 Setting up ECOSIM simulation routine	19
4.2 Feeding behavior parameters	19
4.3 Trophic ontogeny	21
4.4 Flow control assumption	21
4.5 Mediation factor	22
4.6 Fishing effort trajectory and assumptions	24
4.7 Biomasses depleted under baseline assumptions	25
5. ECOSPACE simulations for Hong Kong waters (T.J. Pitcher and E.A. Buchary)	27
5.1 Management area designation	27
5.2 Habitat designation and assignation of functional groups into different habitats	29
5.3 Dispersal rate, predation and foraging parameters	31
5.4 Assignation of fisheries sectors into different habitats and management areas	32
6. ECOSPACE simulations for the People's Republic of China (PRC) inshore waters (T.J. Pitcher and E.A. Buchary)	36
6.1 Underlying assumptions	36
6.2 Management area designation and mapping	37
6.3 Habitat and management area designation and assignation of functional groups into different habitats	38
6.4 Assignation of fisheries sectors into different habitats and management areas	40
7. Assumptions of ECOPATH, ECOSIM and ECOSPACE in this study (E.A. Buchary and T.J. Pitcher)	45
Part 2. Hong Kong MPAs and ARs
8. Management scenarios tested and analyzed (E.A. Buchary and T.J. Pitcher)	46
8.1 Ecosystem model of Hong Kong waters	46
8.2 Ecosystem model of PRC inshore waters: an extension of HK model	49
9. Economic analysis and simulations of Hong Kong fisheries (U.R. Sumaila)	50
9.1 Introduction	50
9.2 General outline of the approach used for the analysis	50
9.3 Valuation of changes in quantity harvested	51
9.4 Determining artificial reef deployment and fish harvesting costs	51
9.5 Weighting present and future streams of income	51
9.6 The analysis	51
9.6.1 Project benefits	51
9.6.2 Project costs	51
9.6.3 Analysis and comparison of annual benefits	52
9.6.4 Game theoretic analysis	52
10. Discussion and concluding remarks (T.J. Pitcher, U.R. Sumaila, E.A. Buchary and N. Haggan)	54
10.1 Main ecological results and discussion	54
10.1.1 Comparison of reef resources across scenarios	54
10.1.2 Comparison of indicator species across scenarios	55
10.2 Main economic results and discussion	57
10.2.1 Potential benefits from the different scenarios analyzed	57
10.2.2 Reef fish benefits	57
10.2.3 Benefits from key commercial resources	59
10.2.4 Comparison of ecological and economic outcomes	59
10.2.5 Cooperative and non-cooperative outcomes	60
10.3 Resumption of fishing after closure in Hong Kong and PRC inshore waters	62
10.4 Management policy implications of the current ARs/FPA plans	64
10.5 Conclusions and Recommendations	69
References	70

ANNEXES

1. Construction of the ECOPATH Model of Hong Kong Waters in the 90s a. Composition of functional groups in the revised ECOPATH model b. Model inputs as extracted from the Ecowrite routine of ECOPATH	73
2. Results - the Ecological and Economic Simulations of the HK Model	97
3. Results from the Ecological Simulations of the PRC Model a. Maps of habitats and management areas b. Maps of biomass by resources and fishing effort from simulations c. Tables of simulated catch and biomass by resource and fishery sector	145
4. Economic Data and Results Pages a. Computed prices by functional groups b. Harvesting cost data by vessel type supplied by AFCD c. Enforcement and deployment cost computed from data supplied by AFCD d. Annual benefits from key commercial resources per km2	163

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